The region continues to dog-paddle thru home sales, new entitlements, and construction activity. All signs point to a continuation of a three-year trend where activity plods at a barely noticeable increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Only two new entitlements in 2Q, with one market rate apartment and one affordable apartment (a Reno Housing Authority project in Sparks!). However, several single-family projects have begun vertical construction, including the long-awaited Quilici Ranch in Verdi, Ascente off Mt Rose Hwy, Silverado Village in Spanish Springs, a 5 Ridges townhome product, and long-mothballed Sun Mesa in Sun Valley (now called Mesa View).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thru first half of 2025, there has been 8 less new home sales but 63 more existing home sales compared to same period in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Multifamily construction has finally hit its inflection point in our region. However, the Johnson-Perkins-Griffen apartment survey reports a sharp spike in 2Q rents while vacancies hover just north of 2%. We realize that CoStar\/Apartments.com feel vacancies are much higher, but they are not forthcoming with transparent, ongoing metrics (unlike JPG).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was amusing to see the president and nation struggle with BLS employment estimates and revisions last week because we live that world on a consistent basis. There are very wild swings in the data and this has occurred for years. Entertainment aside, new job numbers are very important to the real estate industry and we take them seriously. The two reports we watch closely are the Current Employment Survey (CES – the culprit behind last week\u2019s bombshell) and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Post-Covid surveys have struggled, thus we like to lean into the mandated reporting of \u201ccovered employment\u201d (QCEW) that is not from surveys. However, QCEW data suffers from a 6-month lag. (The employment reports at the end of each subregion section are sourced from QCEW data.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what do they tell us? According to the CES data, thru June 2025 , the Reno-Sparks MSA is up 3,500 jobs, after only 1,700 new jobs were added in calendar 2024 (job growth began its \u201csoft landing\u201d or \u201cincreasing at a decreasing rate\u201d in 2024) . . . . BUT THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE REVISED!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to QCEW data, Washoe County added 1,420 jobs in 2024 (no data available for 2025 due to reporting lag) and the TRI-Center added 88. Our State employment office does not provide QCEW data at the MSA level, and be aware that QCEW does not include sole-proprietors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average weekly wages were a bright spot in 2024, with Washoe County increasing 5.4% and TRI-Center increasing 9.2% over the year.\u00a0 Price per square feet of new homes (2Q year-over-year) were flat and up only 2.7% for existing homes.\u00a0 Wage increases above home appreciation is one solution to our housing affordability madness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, all eyes will be on interest rates as we close out the year and hopefully wake up from our three-year real estate ground hog day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brian Bonnenfant
Project Manager
Center for Regional Studies
University of Nevada, Reno
(775) 784-1771<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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